A mere two months ago when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
His opener came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
